Oscar predicts
All right, sorry for the non-updates, but here's the obligatory Oscar predicts:
Best Picture
1. Lord of the Rings: Return of the King
2. Mystic River
3. Master and Commander
4. Seabiscuit
5. Lost in Translation
Has this race ever been so boring? Unfortunately, the sensationalist ROTK looks like it has a solid lock on the prize. And it's just impossible to convince the fans that the trilogy just isn't that great. It takes so much organization skills, don't you know. It's such a product of love, can't you see. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Actually, I'm pretty ambivalent of all the nominees this year; I found nothing impressive about Master and Commander or Seabiscuit, and I liked, but did not love, Mystic River and Lost in Translation. Had City of God been nominated here, that's what I'd be rooting for... But one can only dream.
Best Director:
1. Peter Jackson, Return of the King
2. Clint Eastwood, Mystic River
3. Sofia Coppola, Lost in Translation
4. Peter Weir, Master and Commander
5. Fernando Meirelles, City of God
Another one that ROTK has locked up. A shame, too -- if there's a technical, organizational award, I wouldn't hesitate giving it to Peter Jackson. But as directors go, Fernando Meirelles is my definite favorite. Too bad. Peter Jackson will go on and win the gold, and follow it up with the remake of King Kong. In that movie, it's rumored that the actor who played Legolas, Orlando Bloom will play King Kong, and will once again defy gravity by running up the side of an elephant. The elephant falls over and dies, killing hundreds. Meanwhile, King Kong will battle Godzilla, whose remake will follow the remake of King Kong, also helmed by Peter Jackson. He will then go on to adapt other great literary works such as Scooby Doo 3: The Return of Scooby. Scooby Doo will be played by Orlando Bloom's left hand. I hate ROTK.
Best Actor:
1. Bill Murray, Lost in Translation
2. Sean Penn, Mystic River
3. Johnny Depp, Pirates of the Caribbean
4. Ben Kingsley, House of Sand and Fog
5. Jude Law, Cold Mountain
This is the race to watch come Oscar night. Sean Penn was what everyone was predicting (especially given that wonderful TIME article on Penn). But Lost In Translation, the absolute critics darling this year, has been gathering an incredible amount of steam, and since it's not going to win best picture or best director, this seems like the best place to award the film. Plus, Bill Murray does turn in a wonderfully understated performance. The wild card, of course, is Johnny Depp, with his shocking SAG win. Could it be that Murray and Penn are splitting votes so much that a third person -- Depp or Kingsley -- will pull an upset? Remember, last year, Jack Nicholson and Daniel Day-Lewis were thought to be the winners, but because of the standstill, Adrien Brody snuck in and took the gold. Could happen again. Or, Depp may be taking votes mostly from Murray, leaving the door open for Penn...
Best Actress
1. Charlize Theron, Monster
2. Keisha Castle Hughes, Whale Rider
3. Diane Keaton, Something's Gotta Give
4. Naomi Watts, 21 Grams
5. Samantha Morton, In America
There's just no question here -- Charlize Theron turned in one of the most powerful and devastating performances of the history of cinema, and easily blew away everyone else. Yes, Diane Keaton was really wonderful in Something's Gotta Give, but she already has an Oscar. Keisha Castle Hughes has all the buzz for being the youngest best actress nominee ever, but not enough to overcome the front runner.
Best Supporting Actor:
1. Tim Robbins, Mystic River
2. Alec Baldwin, The Cooler**
3. Djimon Hounsou, In America
4. Benicio Del Toro, 21 Grams *
5. Ken Watanabe, The Last Samurai
You'd have to be stupid to bet on anything else. Tim Robbins, not Sean Penn, stole the show in Mystic River, and for good reasons.
Best Supporting Actress:
1. Renee Zellweger, Cold Mountain
2. Patricia Clarkson, Pieces of April
3. Shohreh Aghdashloo, House of Sand and Fog
4. Marcia Gay Harden, Mystic River
5. Holly Hunter, Thirteen
It's her third time in a row being nominated; it's time. Though I don't particularly like Renee Zellweger (nor did I watch Cold Mountain), I don't have trouble giving the gold to her. Look for an upset coming from Shohreh Aghdashloo, though -- she did an amazing job in House of Sand and Fog.
Screenplay - Adapted
1.Mystic River, Brian Helgeland
2. Lord of the Rings: Return of the King, Walsh, Boyens, Jackson
3. Seabiscuit, Gary Ross
4. City of God, Braulio Mantovani
5. American Splendor, Shari Springer Berman and Robert Pulcini
Another one that ROTK seems to dominate in. People do respect Mystic River a lot though, so here might be where they reward it. But people also love Seabiscuit (for God knows why), so I'll go out on a limb and predict that. Plus, the plot was probably the weakest part of Mystic River (and let's not get into the so-called plot of ROTK)
Original Screenplay
1. Lost in Translation, Sofia Coppola
2. In America, Jim Sheridan and daughters
3. Finding Nemo, Andrew Stanton
4. Barbarian Invasions, Denys Arcand
5. Dirty Pretty Things, Stephen Knight
This is Coppola's to lose. Having been robbed the director award by Peter Jackson, here she will find her consolation. Plus, screenplay awards are usually reserved for films that people like a lot, but not quite commercial enough to win best film (case in point: Pulp Fiction)
Animated Feature
1. Finding Nemo
2. The Triplets of Belleville
3. Brother Bear
Do we really have to guess? It'd be amusing to see Triplets of Belleville -- one of the quirkiest, most charming movies this year -- win, just as Spirited Away triumphantly did last year. But it has no chance -- it is French.
Too lazy to do the rest, but I'll conclude that City of God has an excellent chance of winning Best Editing and Best Cinematography -- over ROTK. Both editing and cinematography are amazing in that film, and are easily the best I've seen this year. Also, I think it's very, very interesting that the Matrix films did not get nominated even for the Visual F/X category. Instead, Master and Commander and Pirates of Caribbeans fill the spots.