Oscars Predictions
The Big Night is upon us! 2004 was a GREAT year for movies; my best-10 list will be posted in a few days. Of course, the Academy has once again skillfully avoided nominating most of the best films, and indeed included some of the worst. In any case, we don't watch the Oscars because the Academy is right -- we watch it hoping (foolishly) that, eventually, one day, it might surprise us and pick the deserving winner.
This is the year of the big studio film versus the small film that barely got made. The Aviator, an ambitious, sprawling biopic, is going head-to-head against Million Dollar Baby, an intimate three-character boxing drama. But really, even more than that, it's a battle between two very well-respected and loved directors, Martin Scorsese and Clint Eastwood. It was once thought to be a three-way race with Sideways very much in the game, but it's looking like Sideways will be standing on the sidelines (*cough*) for the two big prizes.
In any case, here are my predictions for categories that I care about:
Cinematography
The Aviator*
House of Flying Daggers
The Passion of the Christ
The Phantom of the Opera
A Very Long Engagement
House of Flying Daggers and A Very Long Engagement are both two of the most stunning films of 2004. But their absence in the Foreign Language field means that they'll probably be overlooked here as well. The Aviator is gorgeous, and should have no trouble walking away with this one.
Film Editing
The Aviator*
Collateral
Finding Neverland
Million Dollar Baby
Ray
This is another instance of The Aviator vs. Million Dollar Baby. The Aviator has flashier, bolder editing, and the Academy usually goes for that. In fact, I predict that The Aviator will be taking most of the technical awards.
Animated Feature Film
The Incredibles*
Shark Tale
Shrek 2
The Animated Feature category has always been easy to predict, except for some nail-biting when Spirited Away went up against Lilo & Stitch. The Academy made the right choice there, and it will make the right choice again. Shrek 2 may threaten, but, though it is the top-grossing film of 2004, it's simpler a weaker film than the original. Meanwhile, The Incredibles is the best film to come out of Pixar, and will definitely be honored as such.
Foriegn Language Film
As It In Heaven
The Chorus
Downfall
The Sea Inside*
Yesterday
Isn't it a little odd that two of the most visible foreign films -- House of Flying Daggers and A Very Long Engagement -- are both absent here? I've never seen any of these films, but word on the street is that The Sea Inside will take it. Sure, why not!
Writing (Adadpted Screenplay)
Before Sunset
Finding Neverland
Million Dollar Baby
The Motorcycle Diaries
Sideways*
While The Aviator and Million Dollar Baby slug it out for the top spot, many Academy members will feel bad for Sideways, the critical darling and once front-runner. And this is where they will show their love for Sideways. There's no doubt that the screenplay category has often been consolation prizes for films that should've gotten Best Picture, but are too offbeat to get one. Sideways fits this perfectly.
Writing (Original Screenplay)
The Aviator
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind *
Hotel Rwanda
The Incredibles
Vera Drake
Eternal Sunshine has the most original and breathtaking screenplay of the year, and Charlie Kaufman is long overdue for an Oscar. He has been nominated twice before -- for Being John Malkovich and Adaptation. He has never won. But with Eternal Sunshine, he has written a film that many people fall in love with instantly, even those in mainstream Hollywood. Now, it's too quirky to be on the shortlist for Best Picture, but this is where Academy members might reward the film (and, belatedly, Being John Malkovich and Adaptation). Unfortunately, the cards are, once again, stacked against Kaufman. Some people really love Hotel Rwanda, and this is about the only place to honor that film. And there are those who champion Vera Drake, and this is again the only time the Academy members can vote for it. Kaufman will likely be overlooked again. But no worries; Kaufman winning an Oscar is only a matter of time.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Cate Blanchett- The Aviator
Laura Linney- Kinsey
Virginia Madsen- Sideways*
Sophie Okonedo- Hotel Rwanda
Natalie Portman- Closer
The battle here is between Madsen and Blanchett. Cate Blanchett gave a wonderful, quirky turn as Katherine Hepurn in The Aviator, but Virginia Madsen looked gorgeous and soulful washed in a tender, dim light. Plus, she had a beautiful speech in a movie people are trying to honor outside of the top two categories. My guess is Madsen will make it, barely. For the others, and sadly for Portman, the nomination will be the award.
Actor in a Supporting Role
Alan Alda- The Aviator
Thomas Haden Church- Sideways
Jamie Foxx- Collateral
Morgan Freeman- Million Dollar Baby*
Clive Owen- Closer
Morgan Freeman is one of those beloved actors who have mysteriously won no Oscars. This is a really, really good excuse to give him one. Thomas Haden Church is not far behind though, and may surprise all of us with his charming, boyish performance. Clive Owen is my favorite here -- his screen presence is impossible to dismiss in Closer -- but likely will not win; his character is just too dislikable. Alan Alda will have to be content with the nomiation, Jamie Foxx will have to be content with his Best Actor Oscar.
Actress in a Leading Role
Annette Bening- Being Julia
Catalina Sandino Moreno- Maria Full of Grace
Imelda Staunton- Vera Drake
Hilary Swank- Million Dollar Baby*
Kate Winslet- Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
It used to be Annette Bening vs. Hilary Swank, but now, Hilary Swank basically has a lock. And deservedly so -- she was amazing in Million Dollar Baby. No one will come close.
Actor in a Leading Role
Don Cheadle- Hotel Rwanda
Johnny Depp- Finding Neverland
Leonardo DiCaprio- The Aviator
Clint Eastwood- Million Dollar Baby
Jamie Foxx- Ray*
This is the safest prediction ever. You all know I strongly disliked Ray, but Jamie Foxx's performance in undeniable. He will get his Oscar, without any threat from any other nominees.
Best Directing
Clint Eastwood- Million Dollar Baby
Taylor Hackford- Ray
Mike Leigh- Vera Drake
Alexander Payne- Sideways
Martin Scorsese- The Aviator*
Wow, this and Best Picture this year are the toughest to predict. It's an epic battle between Clint Eastwood and Martin Scoresese, and it could easily tip either way. At one point, I thought the Academy would split it Aviator/Clint Eastwood, and then I thought it would be Million Dollar Baby/Martin Scorsese, but now I'm really really not sure. I think that Million Dollar Baby should and will win the Best Picture, but there are some complications. For one thing, The Aviator is a flashier picture, and more Best Picture material. In contrast, Million Dollar Baby is more intimate and more arthouse-ish, which fits into Best Director more. But then, The Aviator is really only in the running because the Academy seems finally ready to honor Martin Scorsese. That puts Martin in Best Director, and Million Dollar Baby in Best Picture. Which is it? Eastwood has already won an Oscar for Unforgiven, but the Academy might want to honor an old-timer who's hitting on a string of great films -- Mystic River before this -- late in his career. On the other hand, Scorsese has never won an Oscar, and is long overdue. He didn't win one last year for Gangs of New York (which I liked more than Aviator), partly because people didn't love the film, and partly because of the campaign controversy. But this year, people love Aviator, and are more desperate than ever to honor him.
This is truly a toss-up. But, because I think that Million Dollar Baby will win Best Picture, Scorsese will walk away with Best Director. Unless the Academy shocks us all again and does not split the top honors between the two; in that case, Million Dollar Baby will win big.
Best Picture
The Aviator
Finding Neverland
Million Dollar Baby*
Ray
Sideways
This follows from the previous analysis. Let's seriously hope that the votes won't be so split between Million Dollar Baby and The Aviator that Ray slips in!
Well, there you have it. We'll see how well I do.